Every time a prognosticator predicts the death of a business practice, my skin crawls. Few things in business rarely die out, they merely become less effective. For example, if you listen to the mainstream media gurus the newspaper industry should have imploded by now. Certainly it is not a healthy industry, yet it is a resilient industry that is learning on the fly how to remain relevant and profitable in a digital media age.

So I will not be predicting the death of the cold call, however I believe it will soon be on life support. Some sales people claim to enjoy cold calling and will feel naked without it in their tool belt. Some companies have thrived by smilin’ and dialin’, so they will resist any change to their core business. There will always be one-call close sales environments and that will always encourage one-call close prospecting techniques. For these reasons, cold calling will not die. It will merely go the way of the horse and buggy. People still wax poetically about how great life was when this was our primary means of transportation until they actually ride in one

My prediction is based on these three factors:

1. The cost of customer acquisition by cold calling
2. The adoption of Do-Not-Call lists
3. The growing popularity of social media outlets

Factor #1: The Cost of Customer Acquisition by Cold Calling

The internet marketing firm Hubspot released their report The State of Inbound Marketing 2010 this past February and it should be an eye opener for those who cling to their old prospecting measures. On page four of the report, respondents who relied on outbound lead generation (call centers, etc.) stated that their average cost per lead was $332. This compares to the $134 per lead paid by the firms who rely on inbound lead generation.

Factor #2: The Adoption of Do-Not-Call Lists

Do-Not-Call lists have been adopted in much of the industrialized world. In the US, the list only applies to individual consumers, allowing businesses to call other businesses with little regulation. For every phone number in the United States, the Federal Trade Commission claims that approximately 30 percent of those numbers are registered with the on the federal call list. This leaves almost one-third of the potential calling universe off your prospect list.

Costs have risen quickly because of this list. Calls must be scrubbed against the list to ensure calls are not made to consumers on the registry. Transgressions can cost up to $10,000 per occurrence with no limit. Just ask Direct TV ($5.3 million fine), Craftmatic Industries ($4.4 million) and ADT Security Services ($2 million) how these fines can impact your bottom line. The fines also trickle down to the individual telemarketer and can cost the individual more than they earn in a year.

Factor #3: The Growing Popularity of Social Media Outlets

On The Nielson Company blog, it indicates that there were over 124 million unique visitors to social media websites in December of 2010. Both Facebook and Twitter have more than doubled their unique users in the past year. This is much faster than the growth rate of things that are now omnipresent, like telephones, televisions and the internet. Very quickly, Americans are drifting away from talking on the phone to communicating online. It is now easy to talk through the internet with your family and friends while ignoring the pleas of the cold caller.

People want a different experience from companies. They want to engage with you or with your company directly. They will ask extended friends for advice. They will not pick up your unsolicited phone call. They will not return your cleverly crafted voicemail message. They will call you when they are ready. When they reach out to you, will they get a busy signal because you are trying to cold call? Or will they hear a friendly voice that they trust because you have already interacted with them on their terms? The choice is yours.